Normally with one of my after-the-election posts I’d be looking back on what happened. But with the results of yesterday’s vote being so close it looks as though the story of the 2025 federal election is just getting started.

Some observations can be made. As expected, both the NDP and Green Party did very poorly, though the Liberal margin of victory as of this writing is tight enough that the NDP may still have some role to play. They’ll do so, however, without Jagmeet Singh, an articulate and intelligent fellow who never broke through and ended up outstaying his welcome. He lost in his own riding and his political career, I suspect, is over.

Also as expected the Liberals found Ontario, and specifically the Toronto area, to be a rock of support. Whenever that block begins to shift, and it will, that will be the end for their remarkable run.

In a first-past-the-post electoral system it’s always going to be hard for third or fourth parties to make an impact outside of specific regions. Despite slipping badly, the Bloc Québécois may have an outside influence in what happens now. Which leads me to confess that I don’t pay any attention during elections as to what their platform is as they don’t run candidates outside of Quebec. Essentially I see them as being a party of the right, though it’s an old right in a lot of ways and there were parts of their platform, when I started digging into it, that I found myself agreeing with. I’ll never give up on the dream of abolishing the Senate, for example.

It looks as though Pierre Poilievre wants to stay on as Tory leader (assuming he manages to win his own riding, which was still very much in doubt the morning after). I don’t know if this is a good idea, as he seems like one of those politicians with a hard ceiling due to his personality and campaigning style. On the other hand, Mark Carney doesn’t strike me as a skilled politician and he lacks any common touch, but he made an effective foil to Trump, which is all he needed to be in the present moment. He got a boost from being able to present himself as an outsider and a responsible steward of the economy due to his banking background, but I don’t think that’s going to last long. The default impression he gives is of an arrogant establishment technocrat. In any event, what mandate he’s been given will be to manage the economy through what I think is going to be the stormy weather. I wish him the best of luck, which I think he’ll need.

Update:

Poilieve did in fact lose his home riding, complicating his plans to stay on as Conservative leader.

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